As we enter into an offseason unlike any other, I expect teams to be scouring the market for undervalued players more than ever. With lost revenues and unpredictable 2021 attendance figures, some teams are being forced to adopt the mindset of a smaller market team while still filling the holes they have in hopes of competing.
In this post, I will be primarily focused on how organizations with strong track records of improving pitch arsenals should make acquisitions in the early months of the offseason.
I previously wrote about how the use of inflection points can be used to make decisions when it comes to pitch design, but I wanted to attach some names and look at possible improvements through an additional lens. While inflection points are extremely useful in making decisions, it can be difficult to identify exactly how much of an improvement can be made, which is something else I previously wrote about on the importance of a coach evaluation system. I will focus primarily on curveballs and sliders because they are typically easier to manipulate and make changes to than other pitches.
So instead of picking out a random number of inches I think a pitcher can add (or subtract) to a pitch in an offseason, I looked into what pitchers could get more consistent movement. Here are the pitcher's from 2020 with the most inconsistent (measured by standard deviation in inches) vertical break on curveballs (min. 30 CB's thrown).
The first thing that stood out to me were how many names on this list actually had good seasons. It's very possible that a pitch with inconsistent movement performs better by messing with hitter expectation levels. Another way to think of this is being "effectively wild" in movement rather than control, but generally this is not something I would strive to train for. The more consistent movement a pitcher has on a particular pitch, the more consistent I would expect his command of that pitch to be.
To show what opposite ends of the spectrum look like, here are Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty's curveball movement plots. Notice how Flaherty's cluster is much tighter, he had the most consistent vertical break on his curveball in 2020 with a standard deviation of 1.25. Like I said before though, Peralta actually had a great season out of the bullpen so we cannot be too quick to write off inconsistency as a success factor.
Despite the pitchers on the list of inconsistently moving curveballs who performed well, I do think there are some growth opportunities for those who did not.
Dan Winkler had a pretty good season but shows signs of a curveball that could be improved. He flashed plus movement on his curveball and averaged 200 RPM's less on it in 2020 than 2019. His spin efficiency was roughly 47% and he threw it at an average of 82 mph, right around the curveball velocity inflection point (see below), so if he can consistently maintain velocity and increase spin efficiency, I would expect him to get even better in 2021. Winkler is a free agent this offseason.
*Check out Camden Kay's post about inflection points here.
Jonathan Loasiga is under the Yankees control so he may be a little more difficult to acquire, but he is another player that presents an opportunity to improve. In 2019, he threw his curveball 31% of the time, posting a .127 xwOBA and 46% whiff rate. In 2020, he threw it 18% of the time with a .377 xwOBA and 43% whiff rate. Could the movement inconsistency of the pitch in 2020 be the reason he not only threw it less but also performed worse with it? It should definitely be considered and if yes, made a focal point for his offseason to get it back to elite company.
Sliders
Here's the list of sliders with the most inconsistent horizontal movement in 2020.
Once again, some decent performers on this list despite having inconsistent movement. As I started to look into each pitcher more in-depth, a few things stood out. Maeda increased his slider usage by 7% while reducing his 4-Seam Fastball use by 15%. While the xwOBA on his slider increased by nearly 80 points, it's very possible that his other pitches performed better by playing better off his slider more, in which case the benefits outweigh the cost.
Cam Hill's xwOBA on his slider was .193, but both his fastball and curveball xwOBA were north of .350. An inconsistently moving slider was not his problem, the question here might be how to improve his fastball and/or curveball.
When I got to Logan Allen's profile, I noticed how much he improved from 2019 to 2020, even with inconsistent movement (also need to keep in mind a small sample size). Previously, he had been throwing more of a gyro-slider that was not very effective, likely due to a low velocity that is more conducive to adding horizontal movement rather than relying on gravity. He added some sweeping action to the pitch in 2020, which made me pivot on how I was looking at sliders that could be improved this offseason. Rather than looking into the inconsistency of movement, I started to look into pitcher's with relatively low average slider velocities that lacked significant horizontal movement.
I muffed once again in the first two pitcher's that popped up. Josh Osich and Nick Tropeano both had strong-performing sliders this season that were sub-80 mph and less than 3 inches of horizontal movement. The next few pitchers presented some more interesting results.
Philip Diehl's slider averaged 79 mph this year with primarily gyroscopic spin. At that velocity, he would benefit more from a sweeping slider. The movement potential is there, as well, as Diehl's slider averaged over 2700 RPM's with just 26% of it being active. If Diehl could increase his efficiency to around 50% while limiting backspin, we could expect his horizontal movement to increase to 8+ inches which is an important inflection point for sliders. His fastball is another area of opportunity as it has plus carry despite having below average velocity. He primarily throws it to the bottom of the zone which might help when playing the slider off the fastball, but I think overall he would be better off elevating his fastball. Diehl is just 26, 6'2" and 170 pounds so in addition to developing a sweeping slider and trying to elevate more with his fastball, he could be a good candidate for a velocity program at some point.
Tim Hill is another pitcher who I would expect to perform better with more of a sweeping slider. His low arm-slot is also intriguing for a few reasons. For one, it would theoretically help him get on the side of the ball more and since he already has to work across his body, converting his slider spin to more sweeping action would add even more deception to the hitter. The other main reason his slot is interesting is because he likely has an outlier vertical approach angle that make his 4-seam fastball a high-performing pitch despite having otherwise average characteristics. If Hill were to develop some sweeping action on his slider and increase his 4-seam usage, I would expect him to become an above average reliever.
James Hoyt is similar to Diehl in that they have both shown the movement potential with 2700+ RPM's on the slider, but currently underutilize it especially when you consider the lack of velocity. Hoyt's slot is more over the top which could present some challenges in getting more sweep. He is also 34 years old which is not to say he could make a late adjustment (i.e. Adam Ottavino), but the upside is not as high.
Matt Strahm's slider struggled in 2020 but shows signs of hope. He throws it hard at 86 mph but gets almost 8 inches of carry. If Strahm can kill some backspin and throw a consistent gyro-slider, I would expect his performance to improve going forward.
Acquisitions
There is a lot to consider with everything I just went through. I took an initial idea of finding inconsistent movement profiles and went down some rabbit holes with each individual pitcher. I think the biggest point of emphasis throughout this entire post needs to be made on the importance of having a confident plan once the player is acquired. With every player I mentioned comes the need for someone to implement the recommendations. Whether that is an internal coach, one in an offseason facility, or pulling an Adam Ottavino in an empty Manhattan building, the acquisitions are pointless without an attempt to execute the plan.
It would be easier to get a feel for potential changes from free agents because teams can speak with them, unlike trades. If a team were to acquire a player through trade and the player not buy-in, that also becomes a waste.
The offseason presents different opportunities for acquisitions. Diehl is a great example of a pitcher who I probably wouldn't have recommended acquiring mid-season, but with a full offseason and the right direction, it could pay off big.
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