This offseason is going to present some very unique challenges. Payroll cuts, shortened season arbitration cases, and potential rule changes just to name a few. While it would be impossible for me to know what is going to change for every team, I can look at this offseason as if it were a "normal" year and try to find areas for each team to improve the most.
From a more macro-scale view of the league, the visual below could be really helpful in finding an initial trade partner. An organization like the Cubs that has an aging roster, high payroll and strong bullpen (in terms of xFIP) could look to this heat map and spot a team like the Astros or Blue Jays who are ready to win and could use some bullpen improvements. Doing so would reduce the Cubs' payroll and roster age while improving their farm system.
This isn't to say the Cubs couldn't have sifted through team by team to find a match, but this visual is just another tool for teams to make that process a little bit faster in the initial stages of making a deal.
The heat map is shaded by the percentile rank within each category. Darker values indicate a higher percentile which has different context for each column. A darker blue in the "Win_Pct" column is a good thing, whereas a darker cell in the "SP_xFIP" column is an area for a club to improve the most. "WAR_Lost_FA" represents the amount of WAR each team does not currently have signed to their 2021 roster, "Money_Off_Books" represents the difference in payroll from 2020 (full 162 game season) to 2021 as of 10/6/20, "FG_Farm_Value" is based on FanGraphs "The Board", and "Defense" is all based on FanGraphs Defensive values per team for 2020 where a darker shade indicates a better performing defense.
Once teams identify a potential fit from the big picture, they can get further into the details of individual performances, prospect evaluation and money. As the offseason progresses, I will highlight individual teams and where they can look to make some improvements.
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